Truck sales expected to rise 34% in October as festive timing weighs on cars, two-wheelers: Jefferies

New Delhi [India], October 29 (ANI): India’s commercial vehicle segment is expected to lead automobile sales growth in October, with truck registrations rising 34 per cent year-on-year in the first 27 days of the month, even as passenger vehicle and two-wheeler registrations declined due to the later timing of the festive season, according to a report by Jefferies.

The brokerage expects October wholesale volumes to increase 17-19 per cent year-on-year for Ashok Leyland, TVS Motor and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, while growth for Hyundai and Bajaj Auto is estimated at 11-12 per cent.

Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors and Hero MotoCorp are expected to report growth of 6-9 per cent, while Mahindra & Mahindra’s volumes could decline 3 per cent.

“Registrations in first 27 days of Oct grew 34% YoY for trucks, were up 3% YoY for tractors, but declined 20-25% YoY for PVs/2Ws given later timing of the festive season in 2026,” the report said.

The report highlighted a divergence in festive-season demand. During the first 14 days of the festive period, two-wheeler registrations grew 16 per cent year-on-year, while passenger vehicle registrations fell 6 per cent.

Jefferies attributed the weakness in October’s passenger vehicle and two-wheeler registrations to the later festive calendar and a high base of comparison.

Among individual manufacturers, TVS Motor’s total wholesale volumes are estimated to rise 18 per cent to 6.42 lakh units in October, while Ashok Leyland’s volumes could increase 19 per cent to 21,250 units. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles is expected to report a 17 per cent rise to 72,000 units, and Hyundai India a 12 per cent increase to 78,500 units.

Maruti Suzuki’s wholesale volumes are estimated to grow 9 per cent to 2.4 lakh units, while Hero MotoCorp could report a 6 per cent rise to 6.73 lakh units. Mahindra & Mahindra’s total volumes are projected to decline 3 per cent to 1.90 lakh units, with tractor volumes expected to fall 12 per cent.

Jefferies’ estimates indicate that the October slowdown in passenger vehicles and two-wheelers may partly reflect the shift in festive dates rather than a uniform weakening across the automobile market.

The brokerage expects October wholesales to be reported later in the week, which will provide a clearer picture of demand across vehicle segments. (ANI)