New Delhi [India], September 2 (ANI): India’s e-commerce market is expected to hit USD 345 billion by 2030, supported by GenZ consumers across Tier II-III cities, says a report titled Smart Growth in a Fast Market, by Infisum.
The report noted that India’s e-commerce sector is entering a transformative phase of growth and innovation, with the market projected to nearly triple from USD 125 billion in 2024 to USD 345 billion by 2030.
On this backdrop, it noted, Gen Z already accounts for nearly one-third of online shoppers and is expected to become the country’s largest digital spending cohort by 2030.
At the same time, “66 per cent of new direct-to-customer (D2C) orders now originate from Tier II and Tier III cities, while nearly 150 million new online shoppers are expected to join India’s digital economy by the end of the decade,” it said, adding that such trends are pushing the demand for “vernacular content, creator-led commerce and localised shopping experiences.”
In the quick-commerce segment, Blinkit holds the largest market share at 44 per cent, having processed around 900 million orders in FY26, according to the report. At the same time, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart account for 25 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.
“With 44 per cent market share and 900 million orders processed in FY26, Blinkit remains the clear market leader in India’s quick-commerce landscape. Its scale reflects the growing mainstream adoption of rapid-delivery commerce. Zepto and Swiggy Instamart stand at 25 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively,” the report stated.
The report noted that Amazon Now has entered the quick-commerce segment by leveraging Amazon’s established e-commerce ecosystem and offering same-day delivery, along with features such as Prime benefits, free delivery, member pricing and customer support.
Amazon Now enters quick commerce as an extension of an ecosystem Indian customers have trusted for over a decade, combining the breadth and quality assurance of e-commerce with same-day delivery. It adds value through no convenience fees, handling fees, rain or surge fees, seamless customer support, and Prime benefits such as free delivery and member pricing.
According to the report, India’s next phase of digital commerce growth will be driven by changing consumer demographics and expanding adoption beyond metropolitan markets.
While India’s digital commerce outlook remains highly positive, the report cautions that the industry’s long-term success will depend on balancing rapid growth with sustainable business models. Rising fraud risks, product returns, evolving regulatory requirements and profitability pressures remain significant challenges for market participants.
However, these are outweighed by substantial opportunities across quick commerce, D2C brands, social commerce, AI-driven retail and cross-border exports, alongside the untapped demand represented by the next 150 million online shoppers expected to enter the market by 2030, it said.
Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Fellow, NITI Aayog, said, “Quick commerce is permanent infrastructure, not a trend. Valued at USD 65-70 billion by 2030, it will drive 45-50% of incremental e-retail growth. Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes are positioned to be preferred players. Amazon Now by converting just 20-25% of their existing consumer base would leapfrog pure-play competitors, leveraging established trust with rapid delivery to capture market leadership.” (ANI)
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