Shimla (Himachal Pradesh) [India], September 7 (ANI): Himachal Pradesh has recorded a nine per cent deficit in monsoon rainfall so far, while the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast largely weak monsoon activity across the state during the next five to seven days, with no heavy-rain alert in sight.
“Monsoon activity has remained quite weak over most parts of Himachal Pradesh during the past few days. During the last 24 hours, very light rainfall was recorded at isolated places in Shimla, Mandi and Kangra districts, while moderate rain was observed in parts of Sirmaur,” Shobhit Katiyar, Head, IMD Himachal Pradesh told ANI in Shimla on Monday.
He said monsoon activity would remain weak over most parts of the state for the next four to five days, with sunny conditions likely at some places.
“There is no alert for heavy rainfall anywhere in the state for the next four to five days,” Katiyar said.
According to the IMD, some revival in monsoon activity could be witnessed after September 11-12, mainly over the lower hills and plains and the mid-hill areas. However, there is no indication of any significant heavy-rain event over the state during the next seven days.
“Although the monsoon will remain weak, isolated places may receive very light rainfall. There is no possibility of any significant weather activity in Himachal Pradesh during the next five to seven days,” Katiyar said.
The state had normally received around 648 mm of rainfall by September 6, but actual rainfall stood at around 588 mm, leaving a deficit of approximately nine per cent, he said.
The first week of September, however, recorded around 15 per cent more rainfall than normal. Despite this, the IMD expects rainfall activity to remain below normal across most parts of Himachal Pradesh during September.
“Most parts of the state are likely to see below-normal rainfall during September. However, most areas of Kangra, adjoining areas of Chamba and some parts of Mandi may receive above-normal rainfall during the month,” Katiyar said.
He said the remaining districts were likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the coming days. The prevailing rainfall pattern is also broadly in line with the IMD’s seasonal forecast issued around three months ago, which had projected at least a nine per cent rainfall deficit in Himachal Pradesh this monsoon.
Although the southwest monsoon is normally expected to withdraw from Himachal Pradesh after around September 25, the state still has roughly 18 to 20 days before its likely withdrawal. Katiyar said the current nine per cent deficit could fluctuate, but a substantial improvement was unlikely in view of the absence of significant weather activity during the next 15 to 20 days.
District-wise, Kinnaur, Shimla, Mandi and Sirmaur have so far received slightly above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, while rainfall in the other districts has remained normal or slightly below normal.
Katiyar attributed the rainfall deficit to largely unfavourable large-scale atmospheric and oceanic parameters.
“Along with El Niño, other global parameters that influence rainfall, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, have remained largely unfavourable for most of the period,” he said.
“These large-scale parameters influence rainfall over different regions, and their largely unfavourable conditions have been an important reason for the lower rainfall observed in Himachal Pradesh,” Katiyar added.
With the weakening of monsoon activity, temperatures have started rising across the state. Day temperatures in the lower plains are currently ranging between 30 and 34 degrees Celsius, while those in the mid-hill areas are between 22 and 26 degrees Celsius, around two degrees above normal.
“No significant fall in temperatures is expected during the next four days. At some places, temperatures may rise by another one to two degrees. After September 11, temperatures in the lower plains and mid-hill areas are likely to decline,” Katiyar said.
There is also no fog alert for the state. Katiyar said typical fog conditions were mainly associated with the winter season, particularly in the lower plains and adjoining mid-altitude areas.
He said low clouds in some areas could temporarily reduce visibility, but such conditions should not be confused with widespread fog.
As per the data available the State Emergency Operations Centre (SEOC) A total of 274 deaths were reported during the monsoon so far in Himachal Pradesh and a total of 110 deaths in rain-related incidents in the during the 69-day monsoon period from June 30 to September 6. In addition, 164 people have died in road accidents across the state during the same period.
The monsoon death toll from rain-related incidents and road crashes rose to 274. Of the 110 direct rain-related fatalities, 38 were attributed to falls from trees or steep rocks, 18 to landslides, 13 to drowning, 11 to snake bites, 10 to electrocution, one to flash floods, one to fire and 18 to other causes, according to the SEOC. Kangra and Shimla have recorded the highest number of direct rain-related deaths at 17 each, followed by Lahaul and Spiti and Sirmaur with 15 each, and Chamba with 13.
The cumulative estimated loss to public and private property and infrastructure has touched ₹1,242.73 crore, with 38 houses completely damaged, 84 shops and huts damaged, and 467 livestock reported dead.
The situation concerning public utilities showed gradual improvement on September 7, with the number of blocked roads declining from 85 at 10 am to 82 at 2 pm, according to the SEOC.
Mandi remained the worst affected, accounting for 36 blocked road stretches, followed by Sirmaur with 18, Kullu 11 and Kangra 10.
Power supply disruptions also eased, with the number of affected Distribution Transformer Regions (DTRs) declining from 59 to 49 during the same period. Mandi accounted for 40 of the disrupted DTRs, followed by Kinnaur with seven and Shimla with two.
However, the number of disrupted water-supply schemes increased from six in the morning to 13 by 2 pm, with Sirmaur accounting for 10, Shimla two and Chamba one.
Restoration operations are underway across the affected areas, with Mandi continuing to face the most significant disruption to road and power infrastructure. The IMD’s forecast of weak rainfall activity over the coming days is expected to provide a window for ongoing restoration and repair operations across the state. (ANI)
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