New Delhi [India], July 29 (ANI): Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen-AI) could substitute 8-12 per cent of India’s non-agricultural employment, while complementing 42-48 per cent of the workforce by enhancing productivity rather than replacing workers, according to a Goldman Sachs report.
The report suggests that while Gen-AI is expected to automate a portion of work across industries, its overall impact on India’s labour market is likely to be one of job reallocation rather than widespread job losses, with physically intensive occupations remaining largely insulated from automation.
According to Goldman Sachs, “we estimate 8-12 per cent of non-agricultural employment is at risk of substitution, while 42-48 per cent of non-agricultural employment is likely to be complemented, with the balance remaining largely unaffected.”
The report estimates that around 9-17 per cent of India’s non-agricultural work tasks are exposed to Gen-AI-driven automation, depending on the level of task complexity the technology is able to perform.
It noted that if Gen-AI is capable of completing tasks with difficulty levels of three to four, such as “monitor organizational compliance with regulations,” “examine financial records,” and “analyzing trends and relationships in data,” then 13-15 per cent of non-agricultural work tasks could be exposed to AI-driven automation.
The study found that exposure to Gen-AI is highest in the services sector, particularly in education, media, financial services and professional services, while sectors dependent on physical labour, such as construction, show relatively low task exposure of around 8 per cent.
Explaining the likely impact on employment, Goldman Sachs said the extent of labour-market disruption would depend on how much of an occupation’s work can actually be automated.
“We estimate that around 9-17 per cent of India’s non-agricultural tasks are exposed to Gen-AI driven automation, but the labor-market impact will depend on how much of each occupation’s task content can be automated. Where exposure is limited, Gen-AI is more likely to complement workers by reducing time spent on routine tasks and freeing capacity for higher-value work. Where exposure is higher, substitution risks rise. Meanwhile, occupations dominated by physical tasks are likely to remain unaffected,” the report said.
The report illustrated this with the example of the financial services sector, where Gen-AI can complement analyst roles by automating basic modelling tasks while potentially substituting routine back-office functions, such as basic compliance checks.
According to the report, the financial services sector accounts for around 6 per cent of total employment, excluding agriculture.
Goldman Sachs estimates that clerical support roles, accounting for around 3 per cent of non-agricultural employment, face the highest substitution risk, followed by professionals (around 3 per cent), services and sales workers (around 2 per cent), and technicians (around 1 per cent).
At the same time, the report expects demand to increase in occupations requiring greater physical involvement. It projects employment gains for physical occupations (around 4 per cent), craft and trade-related workers (around 3 per cent), and plant and machine operators (around 2 per cent).
Summing up the likely impact of the technology, Goldman Sachs said, “Overall, Gen-AI is more likely to reallocate labour across occupations over the Gen-AI adoption period,” indicating that artificial intelligence is expected to reshape the nature of work rather than trigger broad-based employment losses. (ANI)
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